Taking recent polls by state and applying them to the electoral map, here are the results for an Obama/McCain matchup:
McCain - 326
Obama - 203
Tied - 9
If we toss all the states in the "Too Close to Call" category that had margins of victory less than 5%, it looks like this:
McCain - 228
Obama - 159
Too Close to Call - 151
So while McCain has pulled ahead, it's a somewhat thin lead given the whopping 151 electoral votes in the TCTC category that prevent him from getting the required 270 for a win. Personally, I'll believe McCain can win New York when I see it. That would certainly solidify his RINO status.
And in case lightning strikes, or she finds a way to cheat her way in, or the Super Delegates all have a brain hemmorage, here's what a Clinton/McCain matchup would look like:
McCain - 302
Clinton - 236
And with the <5% margin states as Too Close to Call:
McCain - 249
Clinton - 107
Too Close to Call - 182
Now this is a solid lead. Hillary's three biggest projected winners, California, Florida, and New York, are all TCTC. It looks like Hillary would need a bigger miracle to win the general election than she needs to get the nomination.
Obviously we have a long way to go, given how much these polls are changing over time, and of course considering that we don't even have the vice presidential candidates yet.