Saturday, April 12, 2008

Updated Future Electoral Map: McCain Takes the Lead

Taking recent polls by state and applying them to the electoral map, here are the results for an Obama/McCain matchup:

McCain - 326
Obama - 203
Tied - 9

If we toss all the states in the "Too Close to Call" category that had margins of victory less than 5%, it looks like this:

McCain - 228
Obama - 159
Too Close to Call - 151

So while McCain has pulled ahead, it's a somewhat thin lead given the whopping 151 electoral votes in the TCTC category that prevent him from getting the required 270 for a win. Personally, I'll believe McCain can win New York when I see it. That would certainly solidify his RINO status.

And in case lightning strikes, or she finds a way to cheat her way in, or the Super Delegates all have a brain hemmorage, here's what a Clinton/McCain matchup would look like:

McCain - 302
Clinton - 236

And with the <5% margin states as Too Close to Call:

McCain - 249
Clinton - 107
Too Close to Call - 182

Now this is a solid lead. Hillary's three biggest projected winners, California, Florida, and New York, are all TCTC. It looks like Hillary would need a bigger miracle to win the general election than she needs to get the nomination.

Obviously we have a long way to go, given how much these polls are changing over time, and of course considering that we don't even have the vice presidential candidates yet.


joreko said...

The real issue is not how well Clinton, Obama, or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in the presidential election. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states should win.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). Every vote would be equal throughout the United States and every vote would be politically relevant. The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill is enacted by states possessing 270 or more electoral votes, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill It has been signed into law in Maryland, New Jersey, and Illinois. It has been approved by 16 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Vermont, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, and California).

The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule under which all of a state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.


ScienceAvenger said...

I tend to agree. The rules of the game are pretty senseless in our modern era. The boader issue you raise is that we are long overdue for another constitutional convention. That's that thing we had only once that Jefferson thought we should do every generation or so. The founding fathers were no doubt brilliant, but it is unreasonable to expect their document on government structure to anticipate all future contingencies. Eventually basic changes will be needed.

But in the meantime, I'm going to report the score of the game according the rules as they are, and await the day the rules are as I would have them.